A recent survey from Deloitte found that one in five U.S. residents say they have either cut the cord (i.e., cancelled cable or satellite service) or are thinking about doing it. Nine percent of survey respondents indicated they have recently “cut the cord” while another eleven percent are thinking about it. Cord cutters are turning to services like Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime, to name a few.

Interesting and a considerable percentage, but probably not true.

The problem?  The TV industry reported flat subscriptions last year.  As this article notes, even with a large margin of error, the numbers don’t work.

What happened?  Assuming the TV industry is not misleading their subscribers (a 10% drop would be hard to hide in earnings reports) or there isn’t a flood of new subscribers hiding the cutters (though the article seems to discount that, too), the one culprit is likely poor sampling.

The survey was administered online, and while more and more Americans are online, biases are still likely.  While they didn’t reveal how they sampled respondents online, my initial guess is that they skewed towards early adopters and people with faster, more consistent access to the internet.  The exact population you would expect to be shunning cable in favor of online options.

If you’re not really surveying a representative sample of the population you’re interested in, then you’re not really surveying them.

It first asked the six digit store number and then had me verify it was correct.  This was followed by a question if I used the drive-thru or dined in.  Next, I was asked how many days ago I visited the restaurant, what time I placed my order, and if it was AM or PM.  After keying in this background information and confirming it was all correct, I got to the one and only experience-related question: “Would you recommend this restaurant based on your most recent experience?”  Yes, it’s essentially The Ultimate Question, but was that one question enough? Even if the results were cross-tabbed with the previous questions?

To be fair, I was given the option to leave a voicemail for management or staff at the end, but I still had to wonder if the company really maximized my call.  (I presume the register already tracked I was at the store that day, and drove-thru at 5:43 PM).  All in all, I’d say I spent about two minutes giving the store information it already had (or should have had), and about ten seconds about my experience.

While I appreciate a quick survey as much as the next guy, if a person is ready, willing, and able to complete a survey for you, stay mindful of the simple things like making every second count and asking questions that provide real value.

The premise is simple enough – people don’t always reveal what’s driving their decision making, and more importantly, people don’t always even know what is driving their decisions.  Since people either don’t want to or simply can’t communicate what’s driving their actions, we need to look and see what their brain is saying.

Recently, several us read Buyology as part of our firm’s book club.  After reading this book, it is easy to get excited about the technology and benefits it could provide (especially when presented in an oversimplified manner).

The technology does hold promise; however, it isn’t yet the magic bullet in market research.  The ARF’s NeuroStandards Collaboration Project is working to shed light on what is and what isn’t working in the field.  As the article reports, these technologies are raising as many questions as they’re answering.  The biggest challenge?  Figuring out what it is actually measuring and being able to pinpoint what is causing the reaction.

Neuroscience is quickly earning a place in the researcher’s toolbox, but no research tool is without its faults.  We must understand the limitations of our methods for us to get the most out of them.

While infographics are often creative masterpieces, the real power of infographics of course is to convey the impact of the data, not just the data itself.  I think too that there is a sense of discovery in a beautifully designed graphic – the more you look, the more you see and absorb.

So, how to get started?  Here are a few free websites that can create something other than a bar or pie chart:

• Many Eyes From traditional graphs to geographical maps, treemaps, and several more options.
• GapMinder While you can’t upload your own data, you can create animated graphics that show change over time based on world demographics.  (Here is an example…be sure to click play)
• Tableau A more complete solution (and in this case, not free, though there is a free trial) that allows more customization of your graphics.

Of course, step 1 is to determine how your audience will best absorb the information and gauge the appropriateness of the medium.  As you get more advanced, consider hiring a professional designer to assist in creating truly unique visuals.

Need some inspiration to get started?  Check out the site Information is Beautiful or one of David McCandless’s books.  Or do a Google Image Search for the term infographic.

What other means have you used to create interesting graphics?  Any exceptional infographics you’ve seen?  Please share in the comments.

(If you recently attended the Content Marketing Conference in Denver, Michael Pranikoff of PRNewswire also spoke to the importance of inforgraphics in crating compelling content.)

Remember to look beyond your own numbers to see the bigger story they tell.

Happy Friday.

Take for example a tracking study we did measuring recreation activities.  We saw a large drop in certain outdoor recreation between two studies – but the first one was conducted in spring and the other in winter.  If you measured the concern over the flu among the general public, the research during the time of the flu season would likely result in higher concern.

A recent example?  Toyota took a hard fall in J.D. Power and Associates’ Initial Quality Study this year.  While Toyota obviously has had a rough year, their ratings were likely hurt further by the timing of the survey which took place from February through May (The below graph shows Google Trends data on “Toyota Recall“, point C,  which peaked immediately before the survey).

While the goal is often to measure the impact of these events, other times it is not ideal to measure the impact of a short-lived event and you at least should be aware of the possible impact.  What to keep an eye out for?  Three big ones are:

• Seasonal and weather (e.g blizzards, heat waves, etc.)
• Political events
• News stories (yes, a catch-all, but even a brief news story on a topic can change the opinions of respondents)*

* You can use news monitoring services like Google Alerts to keep an eye on developing stories.

The Economist summed it up nicely in an article from last week’s edition.

When asked whether they supported a variety of issues, most people showed strong support.  However, when the downsides of those propositions were pointed out, support decreased significantly.  The strongest example was support for outfitting soldiers with the best equipment – 83% strongly supported.  When reminded that it would mean less spent on public services that they’d receive, support dropped to 46%.

Interestingly, alcohol bucked the trend.  When asked if the government should try to limit people’s boozing by taxing alcohol more 32% strongly agreed.  When reminded that it would mean they’d personally pay more for alcohol, there was no statistical change.  Presumably, people understood this issue well enough from the start and knew it meant they’d pay more, and therefore that was already calculated into their first response.

Many, if not all, issues can be framed in terms of gains or losses for those concerned.  Asking a question that only addresses one side of the coin is considered a research bias.  Pundits and politicians may rely on biased questioning to sway support for their beliefs, but researchers shouldn’t.

In the end, be careful what you’re asking.  People don’t make decisions in  a vacuum and your research shouldn’t be conducted in one either.

So, we were very happy to see this article on ABCnews.com discussing the results of a recent study by Stanford University scientists (full report here), showing that, in fact, opt-in panels produce results that are significantly less accurate than results from randomly- (i.e., probabilistically-) selected panels.  And perhaps even more important, weighting the results from the opt-in panel to match population demographics did not increase accuracy in the opt-in panel results.

In a sense, these results vindicate our commitment to using only proven, high-quality research methodologies, to ensure that our clients receive results they can trust – results they can rely on to make decisions.

It’s like an Olympics for marketers only it happens once every 10 years.  And its effects are far reaching — from government needs (distribution of congressional seats, federal funding, etc.) to consumer goods (where to open new stores, product mixes, etc.).

The Census will provide the data to confirm or refute large societal shifts and greater diversity among neighborhoods and communities.  Better business decisions, better marketing, all with greater confidence, should follow.

So it should be no surprise given what rests on the outcomes that the Census is spending significant time and money getting the word out.  In fact, more than twice the money (more than $300 million on getting the word out) and in 11 more languages (28 total) than the 2000 Census.  New media (i.e., Facebook, Twitter, YouTube), traditional media (i.e., TV, radio, print), and even a traveling road show will play a part.

Given the importance of the outcomes for our clients, we’ll certainly be keeping tabs on how things progress.

Above ad is part of the campaign to get the word out about the Census.  What do you think of it?  More at AdFreak.

In a recent post, he comments on a misleading NY Times post on the Kindle’s declining satisfaction. In summary, he noted…

• People can provide reviews even without owning the device
• Only people who are passionate (positive or negative) will take time to review (see a previous post from us on a similar topic here)
• Opinions will vary depending on the type of customer and the product life cycle stage

While user feedback and comments are key in a user-based, participation web, it is hard, if not impossible, to draw meaningful statistics that can be projected onto all users from these comments (at best you can only say, “X% of PEOPLE WHO COMMENTED, said Y”). And looking at the bigger picture through more insightful analysis (e.g. what are possible reasons behind the numbers?) should always be done to prevent the numbers from leading you astray.

For another interesting story on the Kindle, see this recent Mashable post.